Richardson must endorse soon. The value of his endorsement declines with every passing day, as he recedes from the public limelight. Moreover, considering his endorsement could sway Hispanic voters in Nevada, both campaigns must be courting him assiduously. I think both campaigns are playing to win Nevada. As the Hispanic vote goes there, so does the state, and the repercussions for the Southwest and all-important California could be immense. If Richardson is smart and he wants to get the most for his endorsement he will declare support for one candidate before the Nevada caucus, for the campaigns will be willing to give more in return at this point.
I believe he will probably go with Hillary for the following reasons. Obama could easily go as far as offering the VP slot, but Hillary has a better case to make, politically. She probably need not even offer him as much, but a minimum as secretary of state would not be a bad deal for him considering what he pulled in Iowa. How does Hillary convince him to take such a deal? She argues the following: 1) How well does he know Obama; can Richardson trust him to keep his promise? 2) Even if Obama were poised to fulfill his promise, does anybody really think that the party establishment will let Obama take the tremendous risk of running with another minority candidate? As much as we would all love such a day, imagine what the GOP would do: race and immigration over and over again. Ah, the circus! 3) Actually Richardson only makes much sense in a Hillary ticket for the reasons mentioned in 2. 4) Does he really want to bet against her and truly make her into an enemy? All can be forgiven now, but there will be no turning back once he goes to the other side 5) She can then close by bringing their long-standing relationship to bear, and even play a bit on the guilt that as a good Latino Catholic man he surely feels for having betrayed Hillary in Iowa. That would probably work wonders. In short, I believe Hillary has both the logical arguments and the emotional upper hand in dealing with Richardson.
If Richardson doesn't endorse before Nevada, then he has either lost his marbles, he has been paralyzed by his inability to choose, or Obama has somehow managed to keep him neutral, possibly indicating a great deal of institutional strength on his part. But, frankly, I just don't see how Richardson endorses Obama, unless he really has it in for Hillary. In terms of just a cost benefit analysis, I don't see how he can reach that decision.
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